- Research
A new study by INRS reveals a hefty bill to come.
Every year, extreme heat has a negative impact on the health of Quebecers. Until now, data on the health costs associated with these weather events have been limited. A team from the Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), in collaboration with the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) and Health Canada, has carried out a comprehensive study estimating the current and future health costs associated with extreme heat in Quebec.
Their results, published this month in the journal Science of the Total Environment, provide a basis for collective reflection on prevention and the implementation of short- and long-term adaptation measures in the context of climate change. They will be presented at the 10th Ouranos 2025 Symposium (from January 28 to 29), one of Quebec’s leading events on climatology and adaptation to climate change.
“This study is groundbreaking in that it is the first to provide such a comprehensive estimate of the historical and future costs associated with extreme heat for the whole of Quebec. It also distinguishes between different types of costs and health impacts, such as mortality, hospitalizations, absenteeism and loss of well-being,”
Jérémie Boudreault, doctoral candidate in Data Science and Environmental Health, and first author of the study.
The study’s findings reveal that the burden associated with heat in Quebec amounts to $15 million annually in terms of healthcare costs (direct costs), $5 million in terms of absenteeism (indirect costs), and $3.6 billion in terms of loss of life and of well-being, i.e. reduced activity during periods of intense heatwaves (intangible costs). These figures represent annual averages for the historical period from 1990 to 2019.
The team had already examined the health burden of prolonged heat episodes over several days and the effects on population health in a previous study.
According to this new work, the costs are set to rise considerably over the next fifty years, due to climate change and population growth. Heat-related mortality and morbidity, as well as the number of extreme heatwaves, could double and even quadruple by 2050. As for total health costs, these will increase 3-fold according to a median climate and demographic scenario, and 5-fold according to a more pessimistic scenario.
More data to speed up adaptation
By quantifying the health costs associated with heat, we can accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to extreme heat. The team’s future work will focus on cost-benefit analyses of these adaptation measures.
According to this new study, the heat-related health costs are therefore just as significant as those of other extreme weather events but are often unrecognized or invisible at present. For example, the floods of 2024 caused by Hurricane Debby cost Quebec $2.5 billion in insurable losses, while the intangible costs of heat are on the order of $3.6 billion every summer in Quebec. These could even reach $17 billion by 2050 if no additional adaptation measures are taken.
“The health costs of heat to society are already on the order of billions of dollars every year in Quebec. It is urgent to implement measures to limit these costs, especially in a context where they could be multiplied by 5 by 2050 if nothing is done. This study provides an additional economic argument to help decision-makers and the population better adapt to the consequences of the climate crisis. ”
Fateh Chebana, INRS professor expert in data sciences applied to the environment and environmental health, and the study’s coauthor.
About the study
The article “Projecting the overall heat-related health burden and associated economic costs in a climate change context in Quebec, Canada” was co-authored by Jérémie Boudreault (INRS, INSPQ), Éric Lavigne (Health Canada, University of Ottawa), Céline Campagna (INRS, Université Laval., formerly INSPQ) and Fateh Chebana (INRS). It was published in the journal Science of the Total Environment. DOI : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178022
First author Jérémie Boudreault’s research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through a Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship, by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, by Ouranos and by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ).
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