- Research
Professor Taha Ouarda is working with an international team to study and predict the human influence on climate.
New research findings show that the risk of concurrent heat waves and droughts is expected to increase tenfold across India by 2100.
In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for urgent adaptation and mitigation efforts to address the climate crisis. An international research team looked at the influence of human activity on climate change, mainly on the evolution of heat waves in India since the early 20thcentury. In a recent article in Scientific Reports, their findings show that the risk of concurrent heat waves and droughts is expected to increase tenfold across India by 2100.
“We have to act and stop saying that the observed or projected increases are not that bad: ‘1°C or 1.5°C is not going to ruin the earth….’ We’re losing control, if we haven’t already lost it.”
Taha Ouarda, INRS Professor
Professor Ouarda who co-authored the study, collaborated with scientists at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (India) and the University of California.
More intense heat waves
The team sought to understand the influence of natural causes, including solar variations and volcanic activity, and anthropogenic anthropogenic causes such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and land use. To do this, the team used the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), which classifies heat waves according to their intensity.
By the end of this century, the results show that the risk associated with these heat waves could increase tenfold in some parts of India. These consequences are not negligible considering that India has the second-largest population in the world, with just under 1.4 billion inhabitants.
In 2015, India was severely affected by heat waves attributed to anthropogenic activity that caused thousands of deaths. The environment, health, agriculture, and energy sectors, among others, will be heavily impacted unless climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are implemented for future heat waves.
“India is an excellent research platform because it is larger than Western Europe and is representative of several climate types found on earth,” says Professor Ouarda, an expert in environmental statistical models.
The data observed showed a sharp increase in heat waves in recent decades, but scientists believe that more than 70% of India’s land area will experience the effects of intense heat waves by the end of the century.
The scientists also investigated the relationship between heat waves and droughts, showing a direct correlation between the two.
Canada is unprepared
This scenario also applies to the West. Taha Ouarda feels that there is not enough efforts put into urban development and infrastructure construction in Canada.
“We have a false sense of security in Québec, and in the rest of Canada, because we do not live in a warm climate. Yet we are less prepared and more vulnerable than other populations,” he warns.
According to Professor Ouarda, we need to invest more in our infrastructure to make it more environmentally sustainable.
“Working on the attribution (causes) of climate change means taking responsibility for addressing the climate crisis. This forces public policy makers and politicians to take action accordingly,” concludes Professor Ouarda.
About the publication
Kishore, P., Basha, G., Venkat Ratnam, M., et al. Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India. Sci Rep 12, 3337 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3. This research was funded by the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL) in India.
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